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【资料名称】:Foundations of Risk Analysis, Second Edition  【资料描述】:
编辑推荐
Presents an updated book on foundations of risk analysis, reflecting recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment.
内容简介
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems.he principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making.his new edition presents an updated perspective on risk and risk analysis, reflecting on recent developed theory on the risk concept and its measurement.ew material includes an assessment of how risk is defined, understood and described as well as exploring the use of other approaches for representing and characterizing uncertainties than probability; recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment are also presented. ?
作者简介
Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway
目录
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface to the second edition
Preface to the first edition
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 The importance of risk and uncertainty assessments
1.2 The need to develop a proper risk analysis framework
Bibliographic notes
Chapter 2: Common thinking about risk and risk analysis
2.1 Accident risk
2.2 Economic risk
2.3 Discussion and conclusions
Bibliographic notes
Chapter 3: How to think about risk and risk analysis
3.1 Basic ideas and principles
3.2 Economic risk
3.3 Accident risk
3.4 Discussion
Bibliographic notes
Chapter 4: How to assess uncertainties and specify probabilities
4.1 What is a good probability assignment?
4.2 Modeling
4.3 Assessing uncertainty of Y
4.4 Uncertainty assessments of a vector X
4.5 Discussion
Bibliographic notes
Chapter 5: How to use risk analysis to support decision-making
5.1 What is a good decision?
5.2 Some examples
5.3 Risk problem classification schemes
Bibliographic notes
Chapter 6: Summary and conclusions
Appendix A: Basic theory of probability and statistics
A.1 Probability theory
A.2 Classical statistical inference
A.3 Bayesian inference
Bibliographic notes
Appendix B: Terminology
B.1 Risk management: Relationships between key terms
References
Index
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